Initially, projections suggested that applications could surpass 1 million by 2030, driven by a growing population of 18-year-olds and increased interest in higher education, particularly following the pandemic. However, in 2022 and 2023, participation rates have begun to decline, marking a concerning reversal after two decades of growth. A new report from the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), paints a starkly different picture for the future.
The Bleak Outlook for Student Demand
The HEPI report warns that student demand in England could decline sharply after 2030, largely due to a shrinking population of 18-year-olds. Projections suggest a potential drop of around 7% between 2030 and 2035, with an even steeper decline of up to 20% anticipated by 2040. This trend poses serious challenges for many institutions unless measures are implemented to manage student recruitment effectively.
A Shift in Participation Rates
In a concerning reversal, the participation rate in higher education has seen a downturn over the last two years, following two decades of steady increase. This decline in interest, compounded by economic factors such as rising living costs and limited maintenance support, could further exacerbate the situation for universities.
The report also highlights persistent gaps in participation between male and female students. While young males consistently make up a slightly larger proportion of births, a significant increase in male enrolment would be necessary to close the existing gap. It would take a 37% increase in male participation to match that of females, highlighting a concerning trend. While the UK performs better than many other countries regarding male participation, the overall underperformance of boys in education is a global issue.
Improving male participation could help mitigate the expected decline in student numbers as demographics shift in the coming years.
Changing University Recruitment Strategies
To adapt to these challenges, some higher-tariff universities, those in the Russell Group, have begun lowering their entry requirements. This strategy aims to maintain enrolment numbers amid fierce competition, as applications to these universities have surged by 40% since 2013, while lower-tariff universities have seen a decline of 13% in applications.
‘It may already be too late for some, but universities are an essential part of the national infrastructure, and for the sake of the country and for the sector as a whole, we need a body to safeguard the national interest. The Office for Students has shown no interest in performing this role” Bahram Bekhradnia, HEPI President
An Alternate Outlook
However in an article by GSL Global it is reported that John Cope, former Executive Director of UCAS, argues that a decline in numbers is not inevitable. He believes that mature students will become more prevalent as AI transforms the workplace. Initiatives like apprenticeships, the Lifelong Learning Entitlement, and a focus on open learning suggest that universities can attract new cohorts of learners. This in turn will offset potential losses in home undergraduates. Additionally, some in the sector propose that the recent drop in applications may be a return to pre-pandemic levels, supporting Cope’s view that the Lifelong Learning Entitlement will aid universities in reaching diverse student demographics.
Whatever the future holds, it is clear that there’s an urgent need for policy interventions to help universities adapt to demographic changes, whether that involves a decline in applications or shifts in the types of students, in order to ensure the sustainability of our highly valued higher education sector.
Given our expertise in student recruitment, we can help universities to refine their recruitment strategies and address the specific concerns highlighted in recent reports.. Contact marketing@hunterlodge.co.uk for more.